Political Interest

New Orleans

The news out of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast has been pretty overwheming.  Like many people, I suspect, I feel very effected particularly by the images out of New Orleans because I've been there and recognize many of the places now under water.

A couple of quick thoughts:

The New York Times yesterday fired off a lead editorial questioning the environmental policies that may have contributed to the precarious siutation in New Orleans.  The editorial was written when it appeared New Orleans was going to come off with a near miss. Those questions now seem both prophetic and premature, the issue now is dealing with the disaster the questions will come later.

Is it just me, or has President Bush seemed oddly absent in the face of what appears to be the nation's greatest natural disaster in a hundred years?

Condo Canaries

I'm not so sure how much weight to put on these kinds of month to month numbers, but, according to MSNBC.com, the condo market is showing signs of cooling.  The article, however, doesn't get into much specifics in terms of regional markets though.

Delusional Romney takes a potshot at HRC

Is the irrelevant obstruction in the corner office on Beacon Hill losing touch with reality?  It appears so.

Thursday taping Hardball with Chris Matthews, Romney declared he would win reelection in a landslide, according to the Boston Globe.  This despite the overwhelming poll numbers against him.  Perhaps, he meant lose in a landslide, that I'd believe.

He then went on to say that having Hilliary Clinton as President would be the worst thing he could imagine.  The silly Hilliary posturing, however, gives away the lie to his silly posturing on the 2006 Governor's race:  candidates for Governor in a very blue state don't take potshots at the Democratic Senator from a neighboring state, unless they have a different audience in mind like Republican primary voters. 

Make no mistake, Romney wants to be President in the worst way.  Not because there is anything he particularly believes in or wants to do, he just thinks the title would be nice. 

However, he has a quandary: he can't run an election appealing to the Massachusetts electorate and the South Carolina Republican primary electorate at the same time. He also, given his thin resume, can't go out of office with his tail between his legs, hence the landslide comments.

Bush Legacy: Disaster or Complete and Total Unmitigated Disaster?

Last week a friend of mine asked me what I thought Bush's legacy would be and I gave what I now think was a pretty tepid response.  So I'd like to revise and extend my remarks. 

Bush's legacy will be dominated by Iraq and 9-11.  On 9-11 I suspect Bush will get mixed reviews; he'll be given credit for rallying the nation after the disaster, but there won't be any way for his apologists to avoid the way he squandered that national unity with divisive domestic policies.

But, the unprecedented act of launching a major war of preemption in Iraq will necessarily be the primary mark of the Bush presidency in history.  And on Iraq Bush's policy will be judged a disaster, with only the scale of disaster still to be decided.

• While Bush has been given a pass by the official investigations so far, which have failed to address the use of intelligence, I have little doubt his nuclear mushroom cloud speeches will go down as infamously as the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
• Given the lack of rationale for the war, Bush's alienation of our allies, escalation of anti-US sentiment in the Arab world and polarization of the domestic political consensus on fighting terror in pursuit of the invasion will be seen as huge strategic blunders.
• Bush gambled his presidency and his nation's security on this policy and then failed to bring enough troops or do enough planning to hope to win in any but the most optimistic scenarios. The rosy scenarios of the Neo-Con war planners going into the war look laughable in hindsight, but their failure to prepare for more adverse circumstances has been tragic for US forces.
• Abu Garaib
• On ground starting with the first administrators Garner and Bremer and ever since the political administration in Iraq has been a string of bungles and blunders, which may lead to an on-going Civil War after we leave or a Iranian client state.

The US soldiers on the ground are trying to do good over there and in many small ways are succeeding in that effort.  There is still a dim hope that the disasters of the last two and half years of Iraq policy can be mitigated with a somewhat decent Iraqi government, an eventual return of US prestige, and regional stability. But, everyday continued incompetence and blind arrogance of the Bush administration, such as its obsession with arbitrary constitutional deadlines, is making that outcome less and less likely, and the Bush legacy more and more bleak.

Not So Fast Bill

Bill Weld's announcement hasn't exactly taken the NY public by storm.  According to a Rassmussen poll he trails the likely Dem nominee Elliot Spitzer by an Allan Keyes-esque 55% to 20%. 

Plus by two to one, votes say having been the Governor of Mass makes them less likely to support Weld, and that's before any of his opponents publish any pictures of Weld with a Red Sox cap.

Radley Balko Spews Nonsense

I am sure there will be a number of blogosphere pseudo-analysis pieces about the red state/blue state break down of today's obesity numbers, reported here in the Washington Post.  When I spot some I'll happily link to them, though the bottom line is this: Americans are too fat, and that goes double for southerners.

But, what I really wanted to draw attention to was the complete nonsense of CATO analyst Radley Balko's suggestions that the introduction of Medical savings accounts is some how going to get Americans to put down their BK Triple Cheese burger and go to the gym.

"If they knew they only had so much to spend, or what they did not spend could be saved, then maybe you could instill a certain sense of responsibility and ownership," Balko said.

Yes, because the prospect of couple of extra G's in the bank at some future date will give people a sense of ownership over their bodies that the prospect of early death, heart troubles, diabetes, knee problems general ill health and loss of physical appearance do not. 

Listen, Radley, if you don't think a government initiative is called for it is perfectly acceptable to just say that, you don't have trot out Medical Savings as some sort of panacea.  It just makes you and your organization look silly.

How many Bushies does it take to screw in a light bulb?

Click here to find out

Bush Falls through the Floor

Soemtimes it's nice to be wrong.  I'd always thought Bush had an approval floor of about 41 or 42%. Apparently, I was wrong, in the new American Research Group poll, Bush's approval is at 36%.

The Counter Bubble Argument

I post allot of stuff about the possibility that we are experiencing a bubble in housing prices, so here's the counter argument from the NY Times; Bubble? What Bubble?

Real Estate in Real Dollars

As the NY Times says "Mr. Bubble"  Shiller, the Yale economist has some very interesting numbers on the history of housing bubbles.  The key is to look at the long term and to think of real dollars, housing prices are more likely to stagnate, while inflation eats away at the real value, according to Shiller. 

It's interesting stuff check it out here